Technical 技術分析

 

在 期權交易分類 這篇文章裡，技術分析是非常大的一塊重點，每個市場上的投資人都會聽過各式各樣的技術指標，聽分析師講的頭頭是道。或許有的指標可以得心應手，但也常碰到失靈的時候，技術指標有的聽起來很奇怪，但是也沒辦法否定它的存在。總是會有人宣稱他的指標如何戰勝市場，吸引一波波投資人相繼跟隨研究。

 

這些事情不是L可以講的清楚的，全世界最頂尖的交易員和學者早就爭論許久，技術分析，到底有沒有用?

 

如果沒用，為什麼那麼多人在用?是不是我不會用?

如果有用，要怎麼用?用什麼?什麼時候用?

 

建議可以先參考WIKI對技術分析的解釋，中英文兩篇，內容有些不同。

 

WIKI-Technical analysis

WIKI-技術分析

 

和其他交易方法一樣，能夠瞭解它才可能用的久、用的順。很多人第一步就踏錯了，看到琳瑯滿目的技術分析書籍就急著拿來當武器上戰場，聽到分析師或朋友信心十足的技術分析就跟隨使用，這都不是長久之計，是碰運氣。其實在尋找和嘗試各種指標之前，先想想它為什麼會有用?是否適合自己用?絕不輕信其它人或老師片面之詞，也絕不盲目跟隨，我們要作的是先驗證，再學習使用，然後再實際應用。

 

所以我們才要看這些資料，首先，技術分析依據下面三個基本原則:

1. 價格反應一切資訊 (Market action discounts everything)


2. 價格是有趨勢的 (Prices move in trends)


3. 歷史會重覆它自己 (History repeats itself)

 

你相信這些原則嗎?例如History repeats itself，這是名言，是格言，但不一定總是正確，就算在某些領域和經驗告訴我們是正確的，在投資市場也不一定正確。如果你不相信它，又怎麼能期待以前有用的指標，這次進場也會一樣地有用?反之，如果你相信它，它又表現的不好時，那怎麼調適?

 

很可能你自己也不曉得自己是否相信這些原則，所以我們才要驗證，驗證各種技術指標在各種市場的表現，模擬我們在每次進場該有多少的期待，表現不好的機率有多少?有多不好?最好最壞是如何? 然後我們再去運用它，再繼續深入瞭解調整它。

 

這個它，有可能是以下任一種指標，或是兩種以上指標的交配組合。這像是武林中各門各派的功夫目錄，我們就來開始一個一個調查驗證，用回溯測試的方法，用策略評估的原則，尋找適合自己的降龍十八掌。

 

Concepts

• Average true range – averaged daily trading range, adjusted for price gaps ( Average True Range(ATR) 平均真實範圍 )

• Breakout – the concept whereby prices forcefully penetrate an area of prior support or resistance, usually, but not always, accompanied by an increase in volume.  ( 通道突破策略 、波段突破策略(with ATR) )

• Chart pattern – distinctive pattern created by the movement of security prices on a chart


• Cycles – time targets for potential change in price action (price only moves up, down, or sideways)


• Dead cat bounce – the phenomenon whereby a spectacular decline in the price of a stock is immediately followed by a moderate and temporary rise before resuming its downward movement


• Elliott wave principle and the golden ratio to calculate successive price movements and retracements


• Fibonacci ratios – used as a guide to determine support and resistance


• Momentum – the rate of price change ( Momentum 市場動能 )


• Point and figure analysis – A priced-based analytical approach employing numerical filters which may incorporate time references, though ignores time entirely in its construction


• Resistance – a price level that may prompt a net increase of selling activity


• Support – a price level that may prompt a net increase of buying activity


• Trending – the phenomenon by which price movement tends to persist in one direction for an extended period of time

 

Types of charts

• Candlestick chart – Of Japanese origin and similar to OHLC, candlesticks widen and fill the interval between the open and close prices to emphasize the open/close relationship. In the West, often black or red candle bodies represent a close lower than the open, while white, green or blue candles represent a close higher than the open price.


• Line chart – Connects the closing price values with line segments.


• Open-high-low-close chart – OHLC charts, also known as bar charts, plot the span between the high and low prices of a trading period as a vertical line segment at the trading time, and the open and close prices with horizontal tick marks on the range line, usually a tick to the left for the open price and a tick to the right for the closing price.


• Point and figure chart – a chart type employing numerical filters with only passing references to time, and which ignores time entirely in its construction.

 

Overlays

Overlays are generally superimposed over the main price chart.

• Bollinger bands – a range of price volatility  ( 逆勢策略-Bollinger Band )


• Channel – a pair of parallel trend lines


• Ichimoku kinko hyo – a moving average-based system that factors in time and the average point between a candle's high and low


• Moving average – the last n-bars of price divided by "n"—where "n" is the number of bars specified by the length of the average. A moving average can be thought of as a kind of dynamic trend-line.


• Parabolic SAR – Wilder's trailing stop based on prices tending to stay within a parabolic curve during a strong trend  ( 停損點轉向指標-SAR  )


• Pivot point – derived by calculating the numerical average of a particular currency's or stock's high, low and closing prices


• Resistance – a price level that may act as a ceiling above price


• Support – a price level that may act as a floor below price


• Trend line – a sloping line described by at least two peaks or two troughs

 

Breadth Indicators

These indicators are based on statistics derived from the broad market

• Advance–decline line – a popular indicator of market breadth


• McClellan Oscillator - a popular closed-form indicator of breadth


• McClellan Summation Index - a popular open-form indicator of breadth

 

Price-based indicators

These indicators are generally shown below or above the main price chart.

• %C – denotes current market environment as range expansion or a range contraction, it also forecast when extremes in trend or choppiness are being reached, so the trader can expect change.


• Average directional index – a widely used indicator of trend strength


• Commodity Channel Index – identifies cyclical trends


• MACD – moving average convergence/divergence


• Momentum – the rate of price change (Momentum 市場動能 、 動能指標-ADX與Momentum )


• Relative strength index (RSI) – oscillator showing price strength


• Relative Vigor Index (RVI) – oscillator measures the conviction of a recent price action and the likelihood that it will continue


• Stochastic oscillator – close position within recent trading range


• Trix – an oscillator showing the slope of a triple-smoothed exponential moving average

 

Volume-based indicators

• Accumulation/distribution index – based on the close within the day's range


• Money Flow – the amount of stock traded on days the price went up


• On-balance volume – the momentum of buying and selling stocks